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Just imagine: On September 24th 2016, Jeremy Corbyn wins reelection.
Under First Past the Post, splitting the partys vote would give the Tories and ukip a clear run at 100 Labour seats.
Donors are sought and local branches established.True Labours role would then not be to compete amicably with Mr Corbyns Labour but to marginalise or, ideally, destroy it by appropriating the Labour mantle through sheer weight, dynamism and persuasiveness.In practice, as is often forgotten, the splinter took more votes from the Tories than it did from Labour.Single (track) Top 40 lista.Britain is a much less loi jeu loto deferential and rigid country than it was then.M (August 2, 2010).The most optimistic projection put to me by the anti-splitting tendency is that, perhaps, over a decade or so, Labour can be made electable once more.«The Catalyst» 5:42 iTunes Exclusive.Meanwhile most unions, which in the 1980s were moderate and integral to Labours salvation, are today in the hands of the left.Partly because the assumption that the SDP held Labour back is unconvincing.
Conservative splits over Europe start to fracture the government.
If the 172 MPs who declared no confidence in Mr Corbyn in June sided with True Labour, this new party would automatically inherit (1) and (2 some of (3) andwith a successful legal challengemost of (4).Moreover, it also exerted the sort of external pressure on the partys right flank machine a sous en ligne gratuit sans telechargement winamax that helped the likes of Neil Kinnock make the case for change from within.Come the 2020 election, True Labour is a competitive force, while Labour looks like a pressure group posing as a political party and, with few locally active door-knockers and a dysfunctional leadership, sinks into irrelevance.And why should those of us who have been Labour all our lives be forced abandon it?Yet even before todays ruling an overwhelming majority of them strongly disagreed.Voters are more fickle.If as many of them as despair about their leader quit, Labour will become rump of administratively incapable hard-liners, while True Labour (as we might call it) will inherit almost all of the partys political talent.Just look at the Social Democratic Party (SDP which by splitting off from Labour in 1981 helped keep it out of power for another 16 years; without much electoral success to show for its efforts.If he wins the leadership contest he has no chance of reconstituting a full shadow ministerial line up (if you include junior ministers).And, anyway, a more pessimistic projection is probably more realistic: that, whole, the party will simply spin off into irrelevance; Britain as a sort of delayed Poland in which a social democratic party that obtained over 40 of the vote 15 years ago shrivels into.So it remains incumbent on Labours MPswho with their surgeries and door-knocking have a much better grip on political reality than their leader and his well-heeled baseto contemplate a future without him.Regular readers of this blog and my print column will know that I have long called on Labours MPs to contemplate ditching their leader.True Labour becomes more confident and prominent as Labour, despite its many loyalists, sinks into chaotic infighting andunrestrained by moderates alights on even more looney policies.Michael Foot was a better politician than Mr Corbyn: cleverer, more intellectually heterodox and a better speaker.Unlike Foot he has suffered a vote of no confidence endorsed by over three-quarters of his MPs.
First, the Labour Partys situation now is substantially grimmer than it was in 1981.
Most of Mr Corbyns shadow cabinet has resigned.
«The Catalyst» 5:44.
Fewer define themselves according to the party for which they vote.
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